Win Rate Calculator
Find out if your strategy has a positive expectancy — and see exactly how much edge you have above or below breakeven.
Strategy status
Positive expectancy
Expected profit of $20.00 per trade
R:R 2.00Breakeven at 33.3%+6.7% edge
Win rate vs breakeven
40% actual · 33.3% needed0%Breakeven (33.3%)67%+
Risk : Reward ratio
1 : 2.00
$100.00 risk · $200.00 reward
Minimum win rate to break even
33.3%
You are 6.7% above this
Expectancy per trade
+$20.00
Average expected outcome each trade
Expected P&L over 100 trades
+$2,000.00
$20.00 × 100 trades
Expectancy at different win rates (same R:R of 1:2.00)
| Win rate | Per trade | Over 100 trades | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | −$40.00 | −$4,000.00 | Losing |
| 30% | −$10.00 | −$1,000.00 | Losing |
| 40%◀ current | +$20.00 | +$2,000.00 | Profitable |
| 50% | +$50.00 | +$5,000.00 | Profitable |
| 60% | +$80.00 | +$8,000.00 | Profitable |
| 70% | +$110.00 | +$11,000.00 | Profitable |
| 80% | +$140.00 | +$14,000.00 | Profitable |
Expected P&L at different trade counts
| Trades | Expected P&L | Expected wins | Expected losses |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | +$200.00 | 4 | 6 |
| 25 | +$500.00 | 10 | 15 |
| 50 | +$1,000.00 | 20 | 30 |
| 100◀ | +$2,000.00 | 40 | 60 |
| 200 | +$4,000.00 | 80 | 120 |
Expectancy is a statistical average — individual results will vary due to variance. A positive expectancy strategy can still have losing streaks. The more trades you take, the closer your actual results should converge to the expected value.